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NAND memory pricing slips again

Monday, August 23, 2010
By Gina Roos

Stamford, Conn. — Gartner Inc. is revising its overall pricing trend for NAND memory devices from down in the mid-single digits to negative 11 percent for the third quarter, followed by a similar level of decline in the fourth quarter.

Overall, pricing for 2010 is still down about 20 percent, according to Gartner, and analysts believe there is still considerable upside potential over the next month as better visibility into orders emerges and as Apple unveils its product refresh.

Recent NAND spot prices slipped modestly across most devices and were again impacted by commodity high-density parts and the influence of 3-bits-per-cell technology on the low-end range of pricing, said Gartner.

garnernandpricing8-23

Gartner says the NAND market has split into a low-grade flash segment for portable storage and a higher-grade flash segment for embedded applications, highlighted by price softness in the low-grade sector.

Gartner says several announcements were made at last week’s Flash Memory Summit, held August 17-19, including Intel’s and Micron’s sampling of 25 nm 3-bits-per-cell technology, Kingston Technology’s unveiling of an embedded MultiMediaCard (eMMC) solution, and Anobit’s partnership with Samsung and Hynix.

Despite these announcements, most of the attention was on several solid-state drive (SSD) announcements from companies such as SanDisk, Fusion-io, Pliant Technology, OCZ Technology, Smart Modular Technologies, and Nimbus Data Systems.

However, Gartner analysts say 90 percent of the vendors in the SSD market have little chance of success for several reasons. These include having strategic access to NAND flash and product that is differentiated by controller and firmware technology.

And, for enterprise SSD, companies also must have compelling software, with either direct or indirect support and services capabilities, Gartner said. Analysts said these companies will thrive or will be acquired while the remainder will disappear within the next few years.

Spot pricing for both DDR2 and DDR3 devices also edged down last week after the previous week’s increase, according to Gartner.

gartnerdrampricing8-23

Average spot pricing across all densities and technologies was down 0.5 percent compared with the previous week, settling at $2.42 on a 1-Gb equivalent basis.

See related article:

NAND pricing set to return to $1 per gigabyte

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